MANUEL VOGT
Associate professor, University College London
My book on Mobilization and Conflict in Multiethnic States (Oxford University Press 2019) examines why ethnic movements are more likely to turn violent in some multiethnic countries than in others. The book's theory first explains why ethnic grievances are translated into either violent or non-violent forms of conflict as a function of distinct ethnic cleavage types, resulting from different colonial experiences. Violent inter-group conflict is least likely where settler colonialism resulted in persistent stratification, with ethnic groups organized as ethno-classes. Such stratified societies are characterized by an equilibrium of inequality, in which historically marginalized groups lack both the organizational strength and the opportunities for armed rebellion. In contrast, where colonialism and decolonization divided ethnic groups into segmented, unranked sub-societies that feature distinct socio-economic and cultural institutions, ethnic mobilization is more likely to trigger violent conflict.
The theory then links this structural explanation to the political actors at the heart of ethnic movements – in particular, ethnic organizations. It elucidates how these organizations fuel the risk of civil conflict in segmented unranked societies, but peacefully promote the empowerment of historically marginalized groups in stratified societies. The book draws on an innovative mixed-methods design that combines large-n statistical analyses – using new data on the linguistic and religious segmentation of ethnic groups as well as on ethnic organizations – with case studies based on field research in four different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
The book has been reviewed in Perspectives on Politics (2020) and in a dedicated symposium in Nationalities Papers (2023).
It is available through Oxford University Press and on Amazon.